Category Archives: Academic

Teaching Systems Analysis and Modeling

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ProModel Guest Blogger: Robert Loomis, Ph.D. Adjunct Professor, Florida Institute of Technology; NASA (Retired)

Loomis

Robert Loomis, Ph.D.

I teach a number of courses for the Florida Institute of Technology, one of which (Systems Analysis and Modeling) is a 17 week graduate level survey course in Systems Analysis, various types of modeling and how the modeling fits into the SA process.  This course is designed to be “a mile wide and an inch deep” in that it introduces several topics that could, by themselves, be the subject of dedicated courses.

One of the challenges in teaching a course such as this (particularly in an MBA environment) is to find tools that are effective and demonstrate the concepts well without becoming bogged down in the mechanics of the tools employed.  It also helps if the students find them engaging to use.  I ended up writing some of my own applications for certain deterministic models in order to meet those requirements and to emphasize the concepts that I felt were important.

I chose ProModel to use as a simulation package for a number of reasons. It has:

  • A graphical User Interface that is attractive, easy to use, and (at least at the level my class uses) easy to learn.
  • Outstanding documentation.
  • An excellent Professor Package.
  • An excellent Student Package. It is modestly-priced and fully-featured (limited only by the size of the model that can be created).
  • A Workstation Simulator (added by ProModel this year) that is extremely useful for instructors and students.

I have also found the ProModel staff to be responsive, courteous, and willing to help with any issues that may arise. I believe ProModel recognizes that offering an excellent value and support in the teaching environment will pay long-term dividends as the students move into their professional environment, and I applaud ProModel for their insight.

About Robert Loomis

Robert Loomis received a BSEE from Michigan State University, and an MS and Ph.D. in Industrial Engineering from Texas A&M University.  For the last 30 years he has worked for NASA and the United Space Alliance (USA) in the space and aerospace environment as a safety and reliability expert. His NASA positons included Chairman of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Safety Engineering Review Panel, Chairman of the KSC Ground Risk Review Panel, Manager of Data Systems at NASA Headquarters, Deputy Director of Safety at Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC), and Head of the Independent Technical Authority at DFRC. He held numerous positions with USA, culminating in Corporate Director of Mission Assurance.  Dr. Loomis’ recognitions include the NASA QASAR Award, the NASA Exceptional Public Service Medal the Astronauts Silver Snoopy Award; the IEEE Millennium Medal; IEEE Reliability Society Lifetime Achievement Award; and Leadership and Teamwork Awards from the United Space Alliance.  He is a Senior Member of the IEEE and a Fellow of the Society of Reliability Engineers. He is an adjunct professor at Florida Tech; and most importantly, a Full-Time Grandfather to the three nicest, smartest, and best-looking grandchildren on the planet.

Teaching Simulation to Graduate Students Using ProModel Products and Real-World Problems

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ProModel Guest Blogger:  Larry Fulton, Ph.D. & MSStat – Assistant Professor of Health Organization Management at Texas Tech University Rawls College of Business.  After serving 25 years in military medicine, Dr. Fulton began a second career in teaching and research.

Larry Fulton, Ph.D. & MSStat

Larry Fulton, Ph.D. & MSStat

Teaching introductory Monte Carlo, Discrete Event, and Continuous simulation to business graduate students requires at least two components beyond a good set of reference materials:   realistic or real-world problems and an excellent modeling platform allowing for relatively rapid development.  In the case discussed here, the real-world scenarios derived from interests and background of the professor and students (portfolio analysis, sustainability, and military medicine), while ProModel products addressed the platform requirements. Each of the case study  scenarios served to underscore various simulation building elements, while ProModel supported rapid  product development for a 14-week, lab-intensive course that included some  reviews of probability, statistics, queuing, and                                                    stochastic processes.

Scenario 1:  Monte Carlo Simulation (Portfolio Analysis)

Business students generally have an affinity for portfolio analysis, and I do as well. Using ProModel  features, one of the earliest student projects involves fitting univariate distributions to return rates to several funds and simulating results of investment decisions of various time horizons.  Students discuss methods that might account for covariance as well as autoregressive components in these simulations.  While developing the simulations, students also determine sample size requirements to bracket mean return on investment within a specified margin of error and confidence interval and use random numbers seeds.

Scenario 2:  Continuous Simulation using Rainwater Harvesting

Students in this course are generally from a semi-arid region (Central Texas), which has significant water shortages (so much so that desalinization is being considered.)  I rely 100% on rainwater harvesting for my home water supply, so extending this to each student’s particular home location is trivial. The “Tank Submodule” provides an easy mechanism for developing the simulations.  Students develop conceptual models of rainwater mechanism as well as flowcharts.  They gather rainfall data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration regarding rainfall and evaluate various roof sizes (capture space), demand figures based on occupants, and tank sizes. They also learn about the importance of order statistics (the distribution of the minimum in the tank) versus measures of central tendency that often dominate discussions of simulation. Finally, they incorporate tools and techniques to improve and assess V&V.

­­­Scenario 3:  Discrete Event Simulation using Military Scenarios

While serving as the Chief of Operations Research Branch for the Center for Army Medical Department Strategic Studies, I encouraged the use of MedModel for multiple DES projects.  The team built strategic models (resource constrained and unconstrained) for analyzing medical requirements for strategic operations. These same models serve as a basis for a team-based MedModel student capstone project.  The primary entity for these models was the patient with attributes of severity, injury type, and evacuation type.  The primary processes involved collection, treatment and evacuation. Resources included ground ambulances, air ambulances, medics, intensive care units, and operating rooms.   Locations were geographic locations throughout the entire of Afghanistan.  Evacuation paths were built, and treatment logic (triage, ground evacuation, air evacuation, etc.) provided the flow.

Bottom Line:  The ProModel products are outstanding for use in both teaching and industry.

 Larry Fulton Bio:

http://www.depts.ttu.edu/rawlsbusiness/people/faculty/hom/larry-fulton/

Teaching Process Management Using ProModel

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ProModel Guest Blogger:  Scott Metlen, Ph.D. – Business Department Head and Associate Professor at University of Idaho

Scott Metlen, Ph.D.

Scott Metlen, Ph.D.

Understanding process management, the design, implementation, management and control, and continuous improvement of the enterprise wide set of an organizations processes is the key to well deployed strategies. It was not until Tim Cook made Apple’s total set of processes world class including all supply chain linked processes (Brownlee, 2012) that Apple hit its amazing climb to become the world’s highest valued company; even though the company had cutting edge products before his arrival. Gaining effective understanding of process management is not easy due to the strategic variability inherent in the portfolio of products that companies sell, and in markets they service. This strategic variability (Rajan, 2011) in turn drives variability in many processes that an organization uses to operate. For instance, different markets require different marketing plans supported by different processes.  Order processes often vary by product and target market. Employee skill sets differ by product requiring different hiring and training processes. Different products, whether it be services or goods that have a slight variation require, at the very least, an adjustment to the production process. Adding to, and often caused by the variability just mentioned, are multiple process steps, each with different duration times and human resource skills.  Depending on what product is currently being produced, process steps, process step order and duration time, interdependency between the process steps, and business rules all vary. Where a product is in its life cycle will drive the experience curve, again creating variation across products. In addition, the numerous interfaces with other processes all vary depending on the product being produced. All of these sources of variability can make process management hard to do, teach, and learn. One tool that helps with process management in the face of variance is discrete event simulation and one of the best software suites to use is ProModel. ProModel is a flexible program with excellent product support from the company.

Effective process management is a multi-step process. The first step of process management is to determine the process flow while at the same time determining the value and non-value added process steps. Included in the process flow diagram for each step are the duration times by product and resources needed at each step, and product routes. Also needed at this time are business rules governing the process such as working hours, safety envelopes, quality control, queueing rules, and many others. Capturing this complex interrelated system begins by visiting the process and talking with the process owner and operators. Drawing the diagram and listing other information is a good second step, but actually building and operating the process is when a person truly understands the process and its complexities.  Of course many of the processes we want to improve are already built and are in use. In most cases, students will not be able to do either of these. However, building a verified and validated simulation model is a good proxy for doing the real thing, as the model will never validate against the actual process output unless all of the complexity is included or represented in the model. In the ‘Systems and Simulation’ course at the University of Idaho students first learn fundamentals of process management including lean terms and tools. Then they are given the opportunity to visit a company in the third week of class as a member of a team to conduct a process improvement project. In this visit students meet the process owner and operators. If the process is a production process, they walk the floor and discuss the process and the delta between expected and actual output. If the process is an information flow process, such as much of an order process, the students discuss the process and, again, the delta between expected and realized output. Over the next six weeks students take the preliminary data and begin to build a simulation model of the current state of the process. During this time period students discover that they do not have all the data and information they need to replicate the actual process. In many cases they do not have the data and/or information because the company does not have that information or how the model is operated is not the same as designed. Students then have to contact the process owner and operators throughout the six weeks to determine the actual business rules used and/or make informed assumptions to complete their model.

Once the model has been validated and the students have a deep understanding of the process, students start modeling process changes that will eliminate waste in the system, increase output, and decrease cost. Examples of methods used to improve the process include changing business rules, adding strategically placed buffers and resources, and reallocating resources. To determine the most effective way to improve the process, a cost benefit analysis in the form of an NPV analysis is completed. The students use the distribution of outputs from the original model to generate appropriate output and then compare that output to output pulled from the distributions of each improvement scenario. This comparison is then used to determine a 95% confidence interval for the NPV and the probability of the NPV being zero or less. Finally, several weeks before the semester is finished, students travel to the company to present their findings and recommendations.

Student learning on these projects is multifaceted. Learning how to use ProModel is the level that the students are most aware of during the semester, as it takes much of their time. However, by the end of the semester they talk about improving their ability to manage processes, work in teams, deal with ambiguity, manage multiple projects, present to high level managers, and maintain steady communication with project owners.

Utilizing external projects and discrete event simulation to teach process management has been used in the College of Business and Economics at the University of Idaho for the past six years. As a result, the Production and Operation area has grown from 40 to 150 students and from five to 20 projects per semester. More importantly, students who complete this course are being sought out and hired by firms based on the transformational learning and skill sets students acquired through the program.

References:

Rajan Suri. Beyond Lean: It’s About Time. 2011 Technical Report, Center for Quick Response Manufacturing, University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Brownlee, John. Apples’s Secret Weapon 06/13/2012. http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/12/opinion/brownlee-apple-secret/index.html?hpt=hp_t2. 12/301/2014.

Scott Metlen Bio:

http://www.uidaho.edu/cbe/business/scottmetlen

 

Demystifying System Complexity

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Charles Harrell, Founder ProModel Corporation

Charles Harrell, Founder ProModel Corporation

One can’t help but be awe struck, and sometimes even a little annoyed, by the complexity of modern society. This complexity spills over into everyday business systems making them extraordinarily challenging to plan and operate. Enter any factory or healthcare facility and you can sense the confusion and lack of coordination that often seems to prevail. Much of what is intended to be a coordinated effort to get a job done ends up being little more than random commotion resulting in chance outcomes. Welcome to the world of complex systems!

A “complex system” is defined as “a functional whole, consisting of interdependent and variable parts.” (Chris Lucas, Quantifying Complexity Theory, 1999, http://www.calresco.org/lucas/quantify.htm) System complexity, therefore, is a function of both the interdependencies and variability in a system. Interdependencies occur when activities depend on other activities or conditions for their execution. For example, an inspection activity can’t occur until the object being inspected is present and the resources needed for the inspection are available. Variability occurs when there is variation in activity times, arrivals, resource interruptions, etc. As shown below, the performance and predictability of a system is inversely proportional to the degree of interdependency and variability in the system.

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Suppose, for example, you are designing a small work cell or outpatient facility that has five sequential stations with variable activity times and limited buffers or waiting capacity in between. Suppose further that the resources needed for this process experience random interruptions. How does one begin to estimate the output capacity of such a system? More importantly, how does one know what improvements to make to best meet performance objectives?

Obviously, the larger the process and greater the complexity, the more difficult it is to predict how a system will perform and what impact design decisions and operating policies will have. The one thing most systems experts agree on, however, is that increasing complexity tends to have an adverse effect on all aspects of system performance including throughput, resource utilization, time in system and product or service quality.

For Charleys new blog

ProModel and Medmodel are powerful analytic tools that are able to account for the complex relationships in a system and eliminate the guesswork in systems planning. Because these simulation tools imitate the actual operation of a system, they provides valuable insights into system behavior with quantitative measures of system performance.

To help introduce process novices to the way interdependencies and variability impact system performance, ProModel has developed a set of training exercises using an Excel interface to either ProModel or MedModel. Each exercise exposes the initiate to increasingly greater system complexity and how system performance is affected. Additionally, these exercises demonstrate the fundamental ways system complexity can be mitigated and effectively managed.

ProModel is offering these exercises to students and practitioners who are seeking an introduction to simulation and systems dynamics.

 

For more information please contact ProModel Academic

Sandra Petty, Academic Coordinator  spetty@promodel.com

Mitigating the Hawthorne Effect with Bruce Gladwin

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Bruce Gladwin, PMP - Vice President, Consulting Services

Bruce Gladwin, PMP – Vice President, Consulting Services

With over 25 years of experience in the simulation field, Bruce has worked with major corporations worldwide developing hundreds of models across a wide range of industries. In his 19-year tenure with ProModel, he has served as a Product Manager, Senior Consultant, and Simulation Trainer. Bruce was named VP of Consulting Services in 2005 and has oversight responsibility for ProModel’s Consulting and Customer Service Operations.

Bruce received a BS in Systems Engineering from the University of Arizona and an MBA from Brigham Young University. He is a certified expert in Lean production principles and received his Six Sigma Black Belt certification while employed at General Electric’s Power Systems division.

Key projects include:

  • Capacity analysis for GE Energy Products Europe – determined the maximum production capacity for gas turbine components at GE’s European manufacturing facility resulting in a savings of $9.6M  in capital avoidance.
  • Design of a green-field manufacturing site for production of GE industrial generators – resulted in a savings of $1.2M in capital avoidance and identified the need for an accelerated operator training program.
  • Design and analysis of a disassembly process for the Russian-built SS25 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) in support of the 1991-92 START treaties between the US and the Soviet Union

Check out Bruce’s presentation on the Hawthorne Effect from the 2013 Winter Simulation Conference and his work with a major home improvement retailer…

25 Years and Climbing

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Charles Harrell, Founder ProModel Corporation

Charles Harrell, Founder ProModel Corporation

A few Saturdays ago my wife and I went on a half-day hike up Millcreek Canyon east of Salt Lake City with our daughter, her husband, and their four children, ages three, seven (twins) and nine. It was the first time we had been on this hike and didn’t know exactly what to expect, but we were prepared with food, drinks, sunscreen, good hiking shoes, and basic first-aid items. We were excited for the challenge and adventure, but harsh reality soon set in as the hike was long and hot, and some parts of the trail were quite steep and rocky. The first leg was up Rattlesnake Gulch (named for the frequent sightings of this reptile), and was the roughest part of the hike. There were a few cuts and scratches incurred along the way, but nothing that a band-aid and a little sympathy couldn’t take care of.

1The kids proved to be real troupers (though not without frequent coaxing and piggyback riding) and were always anxious to see what was around the next bend. Sometimes it was a mountain stream or occasional deer or interesting rock formation. Sometimes we made a wrong turn and we had to backtrack to get back on course. Eventually, we made it to the anticipated overlook point where we had a panoramic view of the Salt Lake Valley. With a big sigh of relief, we plopped down on a rock, broke out the now flattened sandwiches and warm drinks, and took in the view. The view of the valley and surrounding mountains was spectacular and we all had a sense of accomplishment as we talked and laughed about the adventurous hike getting there.

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In many ways, I feel a similar sense of marvel and accomplishment as we celebrate the 25th anniversary of ProModel. When I approached two of my graduate students in August 1988 with a set of 5¼ inch floppy disks containing the DOS version of ProModel (written in Turbo Pascal) and accompanying user’s guide (written in WordStar), we set out to revolutionize the use of simulation in the business world by introducing the first graphically oriented simulation tool for desktop computers.

Little did we imagine how difficult the journey would be as we tried to break into the simulation marketplace. One veteran in the industry (who later ended up as a ProModel employee) advised against entering the simulation market as it was already saturated. Undeterred by our inexperience (or lack of good sense), we set up business in the basement of a small dental building that had only two rooms, one of which housed an air compressor that pulsated loudly whenever the dentist drilled. The explanation to customers on the phone was usually, “Sorry! But there’s construction going on next door. Can you talk a little louder?” With determined perseverance, we gradually developed a loyal customer base and built a professional sales and support team that had a good grasp of customer needs. We were all convinced that we offered a unique product—a simulation tool that was developed and supported by engineers and specifically designed for engineers. Keith Vadas, our current CEO, was one of those early recruits, and he continues to keep the various ProModel product teams grounded in the tradition of ensuring our products and services meet real customer needs.

Each new product or product feature introduced over the years was developed in collaboration with our customers to ensure it met their specific needs and helped them be more effective in their work. Along our journey we made the discovery that ProModel was well-suited for healthcare applications since a hospital turned out to be essentially just a large job shop. The hospital administrator we sold the first license to requested only that we change the name “part” to the current name “entity.” (They also winced at the term “scrap” when applied to patients who didn’t make it through the system.) So ProModel became the first to offer a healthcare simulator. There were other “firsts” to follow including the first (true) Windows-based simulation product, the first simulation product to include optimization, the first enterprise portfolio simulation tool, the first global synchronization tool for military personnel and assets, and the first to host its products in the cloud. We are honored by the numerous recognitions we have received over the years including Microsoft’s distinguished partnership awards and the recent high accolades from the DoD.

In addition to the impressive growth in ProModel’s predictive simulation technology, it has also been gratifying to see the breadth of application of our technology, not just in fortune 500 companies, but also in the area of healthcare, education, homeland security, military readiness and humanitarian aid. As we have expanded into each of these areas, we have added individuals with expertise in each of them to better service our customers and understand their unique requirements. (For now, Kurt Shampine is filling in as our hog and chicken expert.) We have also engaged international distributers led by Rob Bateman, creating ProModel users in most major countries of the world.

This, in broad strokes, is a brief sketch of ProModel’s 25-year history. It highlights what I believe has made ProModel such a distinguished provider of predictive analytic, simulation solutions. And now, after pausing to reflect on the accomplishments of so many individuals over the past quarter century, I can only say, I can’t wait to see what’s around the next bend—the one just up ahead.

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Simulation Game is Game Changer

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Charley%20Harrell

Dr. Charles Harrell
ProModel Director and Founder,
Professor of Engineering and Technology – BYU

Project Portfolio Management (PPM) has emerged to become one of the most crucial ways of achieving strategic advantage in a business organization. In order to be competitive, business leaders recognize that they must be able to effectively plan and manage their project or product portfolio in a way that best achieves the financial goals of the organization. The question I would ask is: How well are university MBA programs responding to industry needs and preparing graduates who can effectively do PPM?

In the U.S. alone there are currently 214 graduate business or MBA programs offering either courses or emphases in PPM. But this number doesn’t necessarily reflect how many MBA programs do an adequate job of teaching PPM. Many programs treat PPM as just an extension of project management (PM), or they are content to treat it at a high, conceptual level rather than at an actual working level.

PPM is Not Just PM on Steroids

Traditionally, MBA programs have tended to focus on the management of projects, not the management of project portfolios. However, as universities have increasingly become aware of the fact that most organizations manage multiple projects rather than individual projects, PM courses have expanded to ostensibly address the issues associated with multiple projects. Unfortunately, in many of these instances the real issues associated with managing multiple projects are trivialized as though they are little different from those connected with managing a single project. One MBA program advertises that they provide an entire series of four courses on PM, yet only in the last course is the subtopic of “multiple projects” even raised. The mindset seems to be: if you can plan and manage one project, you can plan and manage multiple projects.

This practice of tacking PPM onto PM, as though it is simply a matter of planning and managing a bunch of individual projects, grossly underestimates the complexity of the decisions associated with competing projects vying for the limited resources of an organization, not to mention the strategic level of thinking that is required to make such decisions.

PPM is more than learning how to manage multiple projects. It is learning how to look at the entire portfolio of projects holistically with the goal of maximizing overall ROI. PPM blends strategy and decision making to allocate resources across competing opportunities for maximum value creation. These decisions are based on risk assessment and financial management and therefore go beyond the simple scheduling and cost estimating activities associated with PM. What this all means is that a good project manager isn’t necessarily a good portfolio manager.

PPM, a Learn-by-Doing Skill

Once an MBA program gets over the habit of treating PPM as simply an advanced exercise in PM, the next challenge is to treat PPM as a skill rather than simply a topic of discussion. Unfortunately, in many MBA programs PPM is addressed as simply one of many topics covered in a business strategy course where students are barely given enough exposure to it to know what it is.

Even where an entire course is dedicated to the topic of PPM, it is often treated at a high level with little attention given to the actual nuts and bolts of how it is done. It goes without saying that one can learn a great deal about PPM without really learning how to do PPM. I recently read one PPM course description in an MBA program that stated: “This course provides the basic concepts of portfolio management and differentiates portfolio management from project management, program management and the PMO. The course content defines the steps necessary to develop a project portfolio, including selecting portfolio components and applying financial and resource constraints. Portfolios have different risks than individual projects and programs, therefore an explanation of portfolio risk management is included.”

Such a course, if taught as advertised, could hardly give students a working knowledge of how to do PPM. While perhaps useful to someone interested in obtaining only a cursory knowledge of PPM, it is of little practical use to someone anticipating filling any kind of leadership role in PPM.

To develop a real working knowledge of PPM, students need to develop a sense of how project selection, prioritization and timing affect financial performance. They also need to get a good grasp of the way resource allocation over time and across multiple projects affects both cost and revenues. Gaining insight into the impact of uncertainty and risk on timing and financial performance is also vital. Especially useful is the ability to generate accurate statistical estimates of performance based on uncertainty. Such capabilities are best developed through actual experience in working with project portfolios.

EPS for MBA Programs

ProModel has developed a PPM simulation exercise using its powerful Enterprise Project Portfolio (EPS) product that is designed to take students through a realistic project portfolio planning scenario. It gives students an experience of what it is actually like to make portfolio planning decisions and helps improve their strategic thinking skills. Since this EPS module is hosted in the cloud, no software needs to be downloaded and students can work through the exercise at their own pace, usually only taking a couple hours to complete.

The EPS module provides both training and assessment so that students receive immediate feedback on the consequence of their decisions and are allowed to iteratively improve their decision making skills. Students come away with confidence in their ability to effectively plan a project portfolio.

ProModel is excited to be working with several MBA programs to pilot this EPS module. Preliminary results are promising, and it is definitely proving to be a bold move for professors to stretch beyond their comfort zone of classroom lecturing. Giving students this hands-on experience in PPM is sure to make them better business leaders. It is more than a simulation game; it is a game changer.

Please Visit the ProModel Academic Page:

http://www.promodel.com/academic/

 

Remembering the Fabios of Technology Book Covers

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Dan Hickman

Dan Hickman – ProModel Chief Technology Officer

This weekend, my wife finally convinced me to donate my old technology books to the local library.  I called the library to make sure it was open and discuss the donation process.  To my surprise and insult, I had to beg the librarian to take my books :-) .   The feeling I got was “Sir, I don’t want your overly large and no longer relevant books”.  How dare she!

oldbooks (1)

This was an emotional event for me.  These books are absolutely key to having and keeping a job that I love.  You see, as an Industrial Engineer, I always feel “more dumber” than my Computer Scientist friends and colleagues.  Books are my great equalizer.  If I cannot                                                  outsmart you, maybe I can out read you!

I could not help but go through the various books.  There is one book in particular that stood out and I was not able to donate, “Visual Basic 6 Business Objects”.

rockfordlhotkaIsn’t Rockford a stud on that cover.  Published in October 1998, I used this book a ton!  I hope my colleague Josh Holdaway is reading this.  Josh and I were working on an enterprise application for a very large pharmaceutical company and we used this book to help guide the design.  Without this book, I would not have survived several code reviews for sure.  Some of the ideas presented in this book are still with me today.  (One random, dirty laundry memory I have on this project is Josh and I were struggling to figure out a bug only seen in production.  We resorted to adding a bunch of message boxes and let’s just say we forgot to remove one.)

I kept this “overly large and no longer relevant” book for my personal collection.

Follow Dan’s Blog!

http://dansgreenshoes.com/

Simulation is a Natural Thing

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smallNewEZ

Ellen Zohil – ProModel Technical Writer

Dan Gilbert, a Harvard psychologist, in a recent TED appearance, presented that in our ardent lifelong pursuit of happiness, most humans follow the wrong map.  Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

As a writer working in simulation, what I also found very interesting is that he speaks of how the human brain can simulate experiences.  And that simulation is one of those uniquely human characteristics, such as an opposable thumb and the ability to combine and recombine different types of information and knowledge in order to gain new understanding.

Isn’t it amazing that, in other words we can have an experience in our head before we actually ever have to face a real situation?

Simulation is the imitation of the operation of a real-world process or system over time. As Mr. Gilbert states, even though we have the amazing ability to do this as humans, we don’t always do it correctly.  Probably we allow emotions to cloud the accuracy of our simulations.

What is great about computers and simulation is that it uses statistics and mathematical analysis to perform simulation, therefore eliminating the room for error.  These simulations yield objective data from which we can make better decisions.  Decisions not based on emotion or intuition, but facts.  And…not only that, but we have the ability to have the experience on the computer, an incalculable amount of times.  In addition, we can change the situation slightly and test out the experience again.

To me, that is just amazing!  What are your thoughts?