Tag Archives: internet application solutions

REAL PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER!

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One study of the performance of mega projects over the past decade in the oil and gas industry reveals a 78 percent rate of failure. Large projects in the process industries have much poorer outcomes. More megaprojects than ever are being developed and each one brings its own complexity.

  • Projects close to the margin must be dropped
  • Resource constraints must be part of the project selection process

The disadvantages to these very large projects are huge, but of course, so are the rewards. Therefore these projects must be scrutinized and evaluated very carefully. Need to make an accurate risk/reward determination for each “mega project” in your portfolio? Learn how one petroleum pipeline organization did it with Portfolio Simulation.

Check out Portfolio Scheduler:

http://portfoliostud.io/#

Project/Portfolio Risk Evaluation:

http://www.promodel.com/pdf/ML-ProjectReview-PipelineRiskEvaluation.pdf

Staffing Simulation Model Helps Transitional Care Nursing Home

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In the May 2014 Edition of IE Magazine (Institute of Industrial Engineers) ProModel client Gavin L. Collins features his groundbreaking simulation work in the Elder Care field using MedModel software to improve staffing and overall care at Boutwells Landing Care Center, a transitional care unit which is part of Presbyterian Homes and Services Continuing Care Campus in Minnesota. In the case study Collins details his work in building an effective model, how ProModel helps you visualize the system you’re working with, and how the proper solution becomes a model for future efficiencies. The Healthcare industry is just starting to realize the importance and value that predictive analytics and simulation holds for both patient care and the industry as a whole, and unfortunately the Elder Care field has even less experience utilizing this innovative solution technology.  Both Mr. Collins and ProModel sincerely feel that simulation can improve the care that we offer our elders when they need it most.

Read the full IE article here:

Simulated Staffing by Gavin L. Collins

Copyright 2014 by the Institute of Industrial Engineers

Gavin Collins has done special projects for Presbyterian Homes & Services, served as an assistant professor at the University of Minnesota, and worked as a resident assistant, trained medication aide, engineer and administrator at Crestview Lutheran Home.  He earned his bachelor’s degree in accounting and finance and his doctoral degree in economics from the University of Iowa.

ProModel is excited to release AST 6.9!

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AST (ARFORGEN Synchronization Toolset) is a custom predictive analytic software platform used by the US Army Forces Command (FORSCOM) to source and synchronize Army resources.

AST is now the authoritative system FORSCOM uses to conduct its unit planning and sourcing process in Army Force Generation (ARFORGEN). AST provides the Army with the means to view the predicted impact of today’s sourcing decisions on tomorrow’s utilization of Army personnel moving through ARFORGEN. AST “on screen” capabilities consolidates data from multiple sources, applies existing or “what if” business rules, predicts the outcome, and automatically depicts results thereby eliminating lengthy manual, linear, and presentation based methods previously employed. AST cuts development time for single Courses of Action from days to minutes, while enabling multiple Courses of Action within the same timeframe.

Some of the new features in AST 6.9 include: Improved Sourcing, Army Reserve, Army National Guard, and HQDA integration (tasks, etc.), additional Army Special Forces integration (risk), improved executive-level reporting (scorecard), improved Unit Cycle management, and dozens more enhancements.

ProModel also recently completed a “Financial Costing” proof of principal for FORSCOM that integrated data from AST and the U.S. Army Force Generation Costing Tool (ACT) for analysis in ProModel’s Enterprise Portfolio Simulator (EPS).

Read more about ProModel Custom Solutions and our work with the US Army:

http://www.promodel.com/custom-solutions.asp

http://www.promodel.com/industries/government-department-of-defense.asp#tabbed-nav=tab3

ProModel on The Lean Nation

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ProModel’s Bruce Gladwin (V.P., Consulting) and Dave Tucker (Director, LSS Initiatives) join web and radio host Karl Wadensten on “The Lean Nation” to discuss the benefits of ProModel Simulation in lean initiatives.  Enjoy!

Probing LEAN Space with Dave Tucker

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Dave Tucker

Dave Tucker – Director, LSS Initiatives
Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt

Most companies have the same basic question they are trying to answer from a model project.  How can I make more stuff quicker?  Whether it is manufacturing, government, healthcare, or most any other industry, they all want to get more items through their processes faster and often they want to do it with fewer resources.  That’s the climate we are in now.  Everyone has to do more with less.

I have observed that many problems in Manufacturing can be directly attributed to having too much WIP.  Excess WIP inventory ties up money, creates the need for storage, increases cycle time, reduces throughput, and wastes Resources time.  But Managers want to keep everyone busy so they allow more work to be introduced into their systems instead of looking for Lean ways to better manage the “pull” of work.  Companies that learn to control the amount of WIP to meet their orders always do better financially then other companies that continually flood the workplace with inventory.

So I get excited when a model shows some new information that a company has never seen or understood before.  When they can see the process waste, understand how to remove it and implement the plan – that’s a great thing.

Check out Dave’s work on the Space Shuttle Program with United Space Alliance and NASA…. 

ABOUT DAVE

Dave Tucker is ProModel’s Director of Lean Six Sigma (LSS) Initiatives and also serves as a Senior Management Consultant and Project Manager.  He assists our clients primarily by providing simulation training, model consulting services, and LSS implementation advice.  Prior to joining ProModel, Dave was the Lead Lean Six Sigma (L6S) Master Black Belt at United Space Alliance (USA), located at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida.  USA is the prime contractor to NASA responsible for the Space Shuttle Program.

Dave has over 25 years’ experience leading teams, mentoring employees, solving problems, conducting training, and improving operations. He has led more than forty Kaizen Events, completed dozens of process simulation modeling projects, conducted hundreds of training sessions, facilitated over two hundred Belts & Team Leaders, and assisted with the implementation of numerous process improvements saving millions of dollars.

Dave has an extensive background in numerous process improvement tools utilized in Lean Six Sigma DMAIC & DMEDI approaches, as well as Kaizen team methods and process simulation modeling.  He has about 14 years’ experience using ProModel process simulation modeling tools for process improvement.  In addition, he is a sought after speaker and has made many well-received presentations at Process Improvement, Simulation, Industrial Engineering, and Aerospace Conferences.  He has a BSBA in Management from the University of Central Florida.  Dave is a Certified Lean Six Sigma Black Belt and a Certified Master Black Belt.

Team ProModel Ragnar Relay: The Experience

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Pat Sullivan – VP, Army Programs

“12 friends, 2 vans, 2 days, 1 night, 200 mile relay…unforgettable stories.”  Ragnar

ProModel continues to demonstrate a commitment to building teams.  Over the past several days (25-27 Oct), Team ProModel grew as friends and athletes in one of America’s most grueling endurance races. The Chattanooga to Nashville Ragnar Relay undoubtedly demanded an often extraordinary level of dedication and sacrifice.  That dedication was played out during the race, but initiated and nurtured during the miles of running our team did in the months leading to the race…well, I must stop here to introduce the entire team, as some members considered their training was                                         an unnecessary crutch.

Team ProModel preparing to leave Huntsville

Team ProModel preparing to leave Huntsville

Ragnar-lockup-blue-backgroundThe twelve person team consisted of team captain Tim Shelton, (ProModel Sr Army Program Manager), Pat Sullivan (ProModel VP for Army Programs),  Brian Brown, Susan Whitehead, Jennifer Harbaugh, Ryan Harbaugh, Robert Brown, Sheri Shamwell, Barry Crocker, Cori Wilkerson, Wes Wilkerson, and Eric DeBolt (the ringer).  And the team could not have run one step had it not been for the commitment of Keith Vadas and Carl Napoletano…and the incredible effort of Christine Bunker (ProModel marketing) and our awesome drivers and support crew (Jim Craft and Kelly Parker).

So, back to the memories… our race day started when we met at our link up point in Huntsville and received our great running gear before loading up our well apportioned vans…the ones we called home for the next several days.  Thanks to our sponsors we had everything one would need…except maybe for a personal masseuse and about three more weeks of training.

Eric “The Lightning” Debolt takes off from the first major exchange point

Eric “The Lightning” Debolt takes off from the first major exchange point

Once on the starting line, in great ProModel fashion, our #1 runner (Robert Brown- a late arrival to the team) voiced the first of what would be many quotable moments. After the race director, announced that “this start represented the culmination of all the months of hard work and training in preparation for Ragnar,” Robert, turned to the team and said “hey, you didn’t say anything about months of training!”

And then the gun went off…at a beautiful waterfront setting on the Tennessee River in Chattanooga, the team was off on our journey.  The plan was set and optimized.  Each runner was scheduled for three legs during the estimated 34 hours to complete the race.  We planned for each of our 12 runners to complete 16-19 miles each. And we delivered…the team completed the Ragnar in under 31 hours!

Jennifer Harbaugh pushes through her last leg through the beautiful horse farms just out side Nashville

Jennifer Harbaugh pushes through her last leg through the beautiful horse farms just out side Nashville

As the sun dropped, the miles faded and the temperature plunged.  Now, some of you may think that running in 25 degrees in the middle of the night is not that cold.  But for a bunch from the south, it was painful.  Couple that with little to no sleep over two days…and the mettle testing of endurance racing was on!

Rob Brown runs in the early morning light as the sun rises and the frost covers the ground. Temperatures dropped 30 degrees overnight

Maybe 25*?

After a cold night, with most pushing through on less than 2 hours sleep, each leg became more punishing… and as the sun rose, Team ProModel made it through the mountains, and into the rolling hills of Tennessee.  With the frost on the ground, the beautiful country side made for a memorable sight as the team passed the 100 mile mark.

Here are a few quotes and observations from the team:

Tim Shelton & Ryan Harbaugh exchange early morning

Tim Shelton & Ryan Harbaugh exchange early morning

“We are two legs up…”  Tim Shelton called in after conferring with the Race Director on our current progress.

“I’m JUST a stay at home Mom…”  An attractive young lady shared with Wes just before their leg.  Once the hand off occurred, she dropped him like a bad habit on her way to averaging 7:15 minute miles.

Eric “the lighting” DeBolt…delivered as promised by turning continual 6:00 minute miles…and then got up early on Sunday to run an “easy” 15 miles at 7:00 minute mile pace.

Jim Craft van driver/team manager/time keeper/ sleepless companion…was often heard mumbling through the night, “this is like herding cats.” 

Pat Sullivan runs through downtown Nashville towards finish line

Pat Sullivan runs through downtown Nashville towards finish line

Pat Sullivan often lost focus…”squirrel!”  What was I saying?

“Just one mile of suck left…”  a common quote Wes shared at each “one-mile to go” marker. 

“Where’s the van…Where’s that “one-mile-to-go-marker.”  Almost everyone racing… J

“Time to get up” says Jim to Barry…”but I never went to sleep.” Replies Barry.

“You are not my favorite person…” Rob says to one of his teammates while seven people tried to get some sleep in a van.

I wrote this somewhat generically…it’s hard to fit in all the stories and express the depth of our appreciation for having the opportunity to represent ProModel.  Thanks again for the great support and allowing us to represent ProModel…know you would have been proud.

Cori Wilkerson runs through the Tennessee hill country

Cori Wilkerson runs through the Tennessee hill country

Brian Brown running towards his first exchange point

Robert Brown “hey, you didn’t say anything about months of training?!”

Susan Whitehead pushes up hill as Team ProModel makes its way through the Tennessee mountains!

Susan Whitehead pushes up hill as Team ProModel makes its way through the Tennessee mountains!

More with Less and the Value of “Simulation”

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Robert Wedertz – NST Program Manager, SME

A close friend of mine recently sent to me our Chief of Naval Operations’ “Navigation Plan – 2014-2018”.  It is a vehicle for our Navy to provide “a vision, tenets, and principles to guide our Navy as we chart a course to remain ready to meet current challenges, build a relevant and capable future force, and enable and support our Sailors, Civilians, and their families”.

Not surprisingly, the key constraints in implementing the navigation plan are challenges associated with a Continuing Resolution and the onset of Sequestration.  Warfighting, forward presence, and readiness cost money.  Our military is the better part of 11 years “boots on the deck” in Iraq and Afghanistan, we are redirecting our focus to the Asia-Pacific region, and other parts of the Middle East (Egypt and Syria) are embroiled in pseudo civil wars which may or may not bring about our involvement.  Confronting our nation’s challenges on a shoestring budget, coupled with future uncertainty with respect to out-year budget allocations, has confronted our Department of Defense leadership with a conundrum likely unprecedented.

In order to confront the realities of that uncertainty, the DoD has more and more turned to simulation, but not the traditional kind – like battlefield mock-ups, operational flight trainers, etc.  I am referring to what I call “Course of Action” simulation.  Leveraging software-enabled predictive analytics, advanced modeling algorithms, and customizable simulation programming, the DoD is taking advantage of “sandbox” decision support tools which provide users the ability to run multiple COAs in a zero-risk environment.  For example:

“What if the Operations and Maintenance budget is cut by 5%, 6%, 10%?  How does that affect our warfighting ability?  How does it affect readiness?”

In the simulated environment, users have the ability to “turn the dials” and measure and present the outcomes to those that have the ultimate obligation to make decisions.  In an environment where the only certainty is uncertainty, decision makers are afforded opportunities to investigate distinct outcomes based upon methodical manipulation of inputs, constraints, and scenarios.

This is precisely the type of environment ProModel has created with the Naval Synchronization Toolset.  Our software development team has designed and implemented a customized web-enabled tool which allows its users to build, test, and present courses of action which source Navy Squadrons to Air Wings, and Air Wings to Aircraft Carriers.  The result is a Master Aviation Plan (MAP) which bridges 30 years of sourcing decisions and is “THE” plan for Naval Aviation to support the CNO’s Navigation Plan.  Additionally, we have provided an integrated decision support tool to the FA-18 Class Desk for effectively managing the aircraft inventory well into the future.

The Aircraft Inventory Management (AIM) tool provides the users with the forward-leaning ability to move individual aircraft between squadrons in order to extend the life of legacy FA-18 aircraft (A-D) and proactively manage the current and future compliment of FA-18 E/F aircraft 30 years into the future.

NST is a “sandbox” which allows users to continually refine COA’s in order to support the strategic needs of the Navy while considering constraints imposed by budget uncertainty, unplanned contingency operation demands, and the “rudder” of our Navy’s key stakeholders.  Through harnessing the power of simulation we have provided a decision support tool that is proactive, not reactive, is risk-free, and ultimately provides decision makers a tool to
“navigate by”.

Myself and Mitch Todd (Sr. Software Architect for NST) touring aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt in Norfolk VA.

Myself and Mitch Todd (Sr. Software Architect for NST) touring aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt in Norfolk VA.

In 2013 ProModel Celebrates 25 Years of Serving Customers!

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Keith Vadas

Keith Vadas – ProModel President & CEO

The ProModel family would like to wish everyone a very joyous holiday season and a prosperous 2013!  We thank you for all your support and business in 2012.  As always, our goal is to help you meet or exceed your performance goals.  We hope that our people and solutions were able to assist you in that endeavor this past year.

2013 marks the 25th Anniversary of ProModel Corporation.  That’s a quarter century of providing solutions that improve performance for companies and organizations all around the world! It’s hard to believe how time flies, but it’s easy to see how ProModel has grown from a small company based on a single innovative simulation software product to an organization with a global presence and diverse solutions servicing virtually every industry from Government and Manufacturing to Healthcare and Academia.  It’s all due to the talented and dedicated professionals, both in the ProModel family and especially within our loyal customer base – so Thank You.

ProModel opened its doors in Orem Utah in 1988 thanks to Dr. Charles Harrell’s vision to provide an easy to use and affordable simulation toolset for non-programmers that could run on standard PC’s.  It has grown for 25 years because of strong customer support and feedback as well as innovative predictive analytic solutions.

We now provide an array of Rich Internet Application solutions like the ARFORGEN Synchronization Tool (AST) that helps the Army do all force planning for missions around the world, Decision Support Tool (DST) that helps Army Materiel Command source equipment for the troops  ensuring their readiness for the missions, The Navy Synchronization Tools (NST) help the Navy  optimize  F18  fleets and Enterprise Portfolio Simulator (EPS) which helps organizations optimize project portfolios with limited resources.

We also continue to improve upon our flagship ProModel, MedModel and ServiceModel suites as well as Process Simulator, our Visio Plug-In, based primarily on your feedback.

In 2013 and beyond we look to continue developing innovative collaborative predictive analytic solutions to help our customers make better decisions faster.  One example of this is Patient Flow Analysis, an application specific healthcare solution designed to make it easier and faster to solve hospital wide patient flow issues.   Keep an eye of for this solution in early 2013.

Here at ProModel we have plenty of good memories and valuable experiences to look back upon over the last 25 years, but we’d also like to hear about your experiences with ProModel.  What were some of the key decisions you were able to confidently make because of a ProModel solution?  Tell us about some of the most memorable and successful projects you’ve worked on with ProModel.

Thanks again, Happy Holidays, and we’ll see you next year!

Keith Vadas

President & CEO

ProModel Corporation