State Probation Office Assesses Jail Occupancy Rate with Simulation

CHALLENGES

The mission of the Office of Probation for any state in the US is to provide seamless services to the victims, communities, offenders, and courts of that state. The administration of probation is a complex and ever-changing process. Recently a state probation organization’s Sr. IT representative contacted ProModel looking for help understanding, analyzing, and improving its probation office processes. Its systems and infrastructure needed to be updated, but before that could begin they needed to understand the “As Is”condition of its processes and all that was involved.

During the project, the US Justice Department planned to release about 6,000 inmates early from prison—the largest one-time release of federal prisoners — in an effort to reduce overcrowding and provide relief to non-violent drug offenders who received harsh sentences over the past three decades. The inmates from federal prisons nationwide were set free between Oct. 30 and Nov. 2 of the same year. This followed action by the U.S. Sentencing Commission—that reduced the potential punishment for future drug offenders from the previous year and then made that change retroactive. The panel estimated that its change in sentencing guidelines eventually could result in 46,000 of the nation’s approximately 100,000 drug offenders in federal prison qualifying for early release.

It became important to also determine the impact of this action on this state’s probation services and local jail systems.

OBJECTIVES

The Probation Office was interested in using Predictive Analytics to analyze the as-is condition of its processes:

• Where might there be any bottlenecks or constraints?

• Assess the impact of the new law on the probation office workload and the local county jail occupancy rate.

• Where could other improvements be made?

SOLUTION

In order to model and simulate the current processes, they needed to be fully understood and documented. ProModel’s resident lean expert was brought in to work with Office of Probation personnel to create a quick high-level Process Simulator Model of the voucher process. Together in a room with four or five probation team employees, ProModel documented in Microsoft Visio, the ins and outs of the voucher system. When this model was built and simulated, the results so closely resembled the realities of the current process and resource utilization of certain team members, that the go-ahead was given to proceed to a complete model of the voucher process.

The entire probation process was modeled and simulated by several experienced members of the ProModel consulting team, along with Office of Probation personnel. The following processes models were completed:

1. Voucher process

2. Juvenile probation process

3. Adult probation process

4. Problem-solving court process

Probation Voucher Process_Image_5

One Part of the Overall Model

VALUE PROVIDED

As part of the law change, convicts who are guilty of certain felonies will spend part of their sentence in probation instead of spending all of it in prison. These felons are at a higher risk level than the current average probationer, and will likely cause a disproportionate workload increase on the probation officers as well as take up county jail space should custodial sanctions need to be implemented.

This simulation model clearly communicated that the current processes and resources available were not adequate to handle the predicted increases in probation candidates. Several areas of the process were evaluated for improvements and the model was used to validate several proposed IT enablers and Lean modifications.

 

Joint Force Capability Catalog (JFCC)

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Rob Wedertz – VP DoD Programs

The United States Military consists of more than 4 million active and reserve men and women, operates at 800 military bases in over 70 countries and has an annual budget of nearly $600B.  The requirements to manage this force globally and ensure it is adequately equipped, trained, and ready to implement both our National Security Strategy and National Military Strategy are daunting tasks.  For the military planners who must provide the most sound and reasoned advice to military and civilian decision makers who ultimately have the authority to direct the forces to carry out the global strategy, detailed information about these forces must be readily available and current.

The Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has doctrinally mandated the integration of Enterprise Force Structure data (Army, Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps forces – capability, readiness, availability and employment) via the Global Force Management – Data Initiative.  This effort will provide the Force Providers (Services), the Combatant Commanders (Force Requirements), and the Joint Staff (Force Allocators) with a technology-enabled Decision Support Platform to carry out the National Military Strategy.

The Joint Staff J35S has been tasked with the technology implementation of this capability, called the Joint Force Capability Catalog (JFCC).  The Joint Staff J35S has chosen ProModel Corporation to design, develop, and implement the JFCC.

JFCC Dashboard

ProModel was chosen as the lead software provider based upon our deep-seeded experience providing Decision Support Tools such as the ARFORGEN Synchronization Toolset (AST), the Lead Materiel Integrator – Decision Support Tool (LMI-DST), and the Naval Synchronization Toolset (NST).

The JFCC is a “sea change” for the Global Force Management community because it is not being developed as a stand-alone platform, but rather as an integrated system with the capability to:

  • Aggregate data from more than 60 disparate systems
  • Present the data in a user-friendly graphical user interface
  • Conduct Course of Action (COA) predictive analysis

The JFCC ultimately provides stakeholders with the ability to do the following:

  • Account for forces and capabilities committed to ongoing operations and changing unit availability
  • Identify the most appropriate and responsive force for capability to meet Combatant Commander requirements
  • Identify risk for the Secretary of Defense associated with sourcing recommendations
  • Improve the Department of Defense’s ability to win multiple overlapping conflicts
  • Improve the Department of Defense’s responsiveness to unforeseen contingencies
  • Provide predictability of the Services’ rotational force requirements
  • Identify forces and capabilities that are unsourced or hard to source

ProModel is proud to have been chosen to provide this much needed capability to the Department of Defense.

ProModel at the Olympics 2016 and 2002

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Alain de Norman, President of Belge, ProModel’s Brazilian based partner was in attendance at the several events during the 2016 Olympics.  He was kind enough to provide us with some great shots he took during several of those events. One shot shows a US basketball player blocking a shot from one of the French players. There is another great shot of a long jumper and it shows the progression of his jump. Check out the montage video below:

Here is a video of some of that same US vs France Basketball game.

Thanks for sharing those great images of the 2016 Olympic Games Alain!  Here is a link to the Belge website for more information about the services they provide in Brazil.  http://www.belge.com.br

ProModel also has some experience with Olympic venues.  Take a look back at the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City and the ProModel Solution that made it all possible! The 2002 Winter Olympics were one of the most complex logistics challenges ever. ProModel products and services were used to design security systems and bus transportation for most of the venues. The predictive technology enabled the Salt Lake Organizing Committee to model and test various scenarios related to security operations, weather, and transportation system design.

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Click to read the full story in IIE Solutions Magazine.

If you would like more information about ProModel solutions contact us.

 

 

 

 

 

Army Logistics Embraces Predictive Analytics

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Pat Sullivan – VP Army Programs

“The purpose of predictive analysis is to determine the impact of resourcing decisions, alternatives, changes to strategy, and demand for forces, on Army readiness.  Impacts must be assessed over the near and mid-term … Unforeseen changes in funding, demand for forces, or other factors have varying degrees of impact on current projections.” – Army Regulation 525-30. Unfortunately, the complex mathematics and stringent analysis that are necessary for predictive analytics have been performed typically by folks from the Center for Army Analysis or by cells of operational research specialists spread across the force.  The challenge for all analysts, from an operational perspective, has been in compiling the data and creating a picture that is worthy of command-level decision making.

The Army Materiel Command (AMC) has pressed forward in applying predictive analytics to create greater efficiency in supporting the Army through the Logistics Readiness Centers (LRCs).  As part of the AMC mission to provide logistical services, the command assumed responsibility for 73 LRCs worldwide.  The purpose of a LRC is to provide installation support with a broad range of essential services that include maintenance, food service, ammunition, general supply, and laundry.  Since assuming this mission, AMC has been squarely focused on enhancing customer satisfaction and readiness while efficiently managing a dwindling budget—not an easy task.

In July 2014, ProModel initiated a proof of concept (POC) project in support of AMC for a decision-making capability that will accommodate both the overall enterprise level and the tactical, local level of the LRCs.  The project required ProModel to learn LRC processes and to evaluate and analyze existing LRC maintenance records in order to identify areas for potential improvement.  For the purposes of the POC project, AMC decided to focus the efforts on one LRC, therefore the process-education and data-collection efforts required for the creation, extraction, and compilation of data were focused on the Ft. Hood LRC.  During the POC effort, ProModel pinpointed the data necessary for analysis and identified several functional needs at the LRC level.  For example, Ft. Hood LRC management expressed a need for a labor-optimization software tool that can take into account labor requirements and overtime planning on a local, LRC-based level.

The software model of processes developed for Ft. Hood was proven to work, so a scaled enterprise solution is currently in development.  The model provided sufficient evidence that the trial scenarios created during the project can be expanded to a larger scale and adapted to incorporate additional requirements.  ProModel is now tasked with delivering a labor optimization capability and a workload-management software module to support the operations of the Army Field Support Brigades (AFSBs) that manage a number of LRCs.  This new capability will enable business-case analysis of the movement of future workloads from one location to another, and it will facilitate the consolidation of resources in order to support a requirement at a particular location.

The POC effort demonstrated that, by incorporating predictive analytic methods into a custom software application, the AMC, the U.S. Army Sustainment Command, the AFSBs, and the individual LRCs will have decision-support capabilities to accommodate trial “what-if” scenarios and experimental process simulations at both the enterprise and local levels.  AMC is proceeding to the next level of development of a software tool with enterprise-wide applicability.  Soon, AMC will experience a substantial positive effect on the command’s process efficiency and on the resulting cost-management controls.  ProModel is confident that this development will provide to the AMC and to the Army a great, leading-edge, predictive-analytic tool that will change the culture of Army logistics management.

Contact VP of Army Programs – Pat Sullivan  for more information. Or, visit our web site to learn more.

 

 

 

 

 

Changing the Vision of Naval Aviation

Rob Wedertz – Director, Navy Programs

Rob Wedertz – Director, Navy Programs

In the very early days of learning to fly the FA-18 as a student in VFA-106 I was scheduled, along with the other students in my class, to attend a NVG (Night Vision Goggle) lab at the simulator facility.  I remember being excited about the prospect of being exposed to a technological “tool” that would remain the backdrop of my tactical flying for the next several years.  As it turned out, the lion’s share of the discussion in the lab that day did NOT focus on the supreme advantages that NVGs would provide on the battlefield, but instead the many limitations of the goggles, that if not considered carefully would place even the most proficient aviator in peril.  The most significant of these limitations was the restricted field of view (FOV).  The NVGs I would fly with over the next few years were early generation technology and design capabilities at the time limited that FOV to only 40 degrees.  To overcome this limitation, pilots had to develop a technique of continually rotating their heads from left to right in order to accurately assess the environment, both on the ground and in the air.  Without doing so was akin to flying with blinders on – not a problem if you’re a racehorse sprinting to the finish line, extremely dangerous if you’re flying a jet in congested airspace at night and at high speeds.  As luck would have it, I did learn to train my body to change the way I viewed the environment and became proficient at not only assessing what was right in front of me (within 40 degrees) but also those things that lay on the periphery.

I use the NVG discussion above often as a metaphor to promote the advantages of changing the way we view our surroundings (i.e. training our bodies to act differently) in order to assess challenges in a more holistic and comprehensive fashion.  From a business perspective, this translates to the premise of assuming a more “enterprise” perspective of challenges and opportunities in order to achieve measurable successes.  To be clear, there are often times when a laser-like focus on what is right in front of you is appropriate.  But doing so for too long is much like staring at the sun.

ProModel’s Naval Synchronization Toolset (NST) is a software-enabled decision support platform that was developed for Naval Air Systems Command to facilitate the pro-active management of the FA-18 inventory.  Much like the first generation NVGs I described above, it provides a high fidelity (limited FOV) perspective of the FA-18 inventory in order to efficiently and effectively extend the lives of FA-18 aircraft to bridge the gap to the introduction of the F-35C.  And while it has provided significant benefit to the FA-18 program office, in its present state it does not include other Navy and Marine Corps assets (i.e. E-2/C-2, MH-60, etc.)  This is potentially about to change…

As outlined in Naval Aviation Vision…

“In today’s environment of constrained resources and geopolitical challenges, the demand for Naval Aviation forces is growing, and the need has never been greater for an enterprise approach to generating readiness. Affordability is approaching the same level of importance as performance. A decade after its formation, Naval Aviation leadership maintains the enterprise approach to generating readiness pioneered by the Naval Aviation Enterprise (NAE). It remains a strong partnership among leaders and stakeholders who ensure Naval Aviation will remain a whole and ready force by creating a cost-wise and collaborative culture of continuous improvement that addresses both current and future readiness requirements.”

Naval Aviation Vision 2014-2025

ProModel has recently been invited by Commander Naval Air Forces to discuss the necessary steps to transition NST from an FA-18-centric platform to one that captures the “enterprise”.  In doing so, the Naval Aviation Enterprise (NAE) would implement a capability that embodies Naval Aviation Vision.  The benefits of doing so are outlined below:

  • As NAVAIR and the NAE face the challenge of providing ready basic aircraft to the fleet and meet readiness requirements, this approach would provide a common methodology and platform to assess all T/M/S. It would provide an “electronic” record of the decisions that were made, the COAs used to reach those decisions and the resulting quantifiable metrics supporting those decisions. The solution is a living representation of the enterprise enabling true decision support.
  • By proactively managing the NAE inventory and making decisions in a low risk environment, cost avoidance associated with non-optimal decisions will be significant. The solution enables stakeholders to see secondary and tertiary impacts of decisions immediately without waiting to collect “real time” metrics.
  • The solution supports both tactical operational and strategic analyses. The ability for key stakeholders to visualize the Health of Naval Aviation predicated on operational schedules, against the backdrop of programmed budgets, and with a constant eye on capabilities and readiness across the enterprise cannot be overstated.
  • A common operating picture of the NAE will provide stakeholders with qualitative and quantitative metrics to influence decisions that should be made today to influence tomorrow.

ProModel is supremely positioned to facilitate the rapid transition of NST from a single platform decision support tool to one that supports the Naval Aviation Enterprise.  As the NAE implements its enterprise perspective initiatives, we will “train our bodies” to assess the landscape in lockstep with them in order to achieve the same successes with the “Enterprise” version of NST.

Incidentally, NVG technology has evolved over the years (wider FOV, less scintillation, etc.)  Ironically, when using the newer technology, it was difficult to adapt muscle movements accordingly.   Fortunately that well-honed muscle memory embedded a more robust scan pattern, and in the end optimized the use of the newer technologies.  The same can be said about the NAE’s initiative to develop a more holistic view of providing aviation assets to the units tasked with carrying out our national security strategy.  That muscle memory will ensure that the NAE is consistently attentive to the needs of the enterprise as it competes for resources, manages limited budgets, and ultimately achieves success sustaining a fighting force that is centered upon warfighting wholeness.

Lead Materiel Integrator – Decision Support Tool: Provides Total Asset Visibility and Planning Capability Not Previously Available

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Tim Shelton Sr. ProModel Program Manager for Army Programs

With over 6,000 current users, the Lead Materiel Integrator (LMI) Decision Support Tool (DST), developed by ProModel Corporation, is the Army’s sole equipment distribution and redistribution tool.  From sourcing equipment and improving readiness at the tactical level, to cost-based decision making at the strategic level, DST provides the total asset visibility and planning capability that was previously absent to Army staff and materiel managers.

“If you are a Logistician in today’s Army and not talking PSDs [Proposed Sourcing Decisions] you are irrelevant.”  – MG Hurley FORSCOM G4

DST not only consumes and displays authoritative data from multiple systems of record (e.g., LMP, GCSS-A, PBUSE, JMAR, DPAS, AE2S), but it also displays the “due-in” and “due-out” transactions.  This comprehensive picture is needed to provide the complete asset visibility and transactional tracking that enables Army planners and materiel managers to make timely, cost-effective distribution and redistribution decisions.

As the Army has continued to restructure, the predictive analytic capability of the tool has become the backbone of Army planning for equipment redistribution.  DST’s blue sky planning capability allows Army planners to match scheduled force structures with contoured authorizations.  Once that process is completed, the tool runs course-of-action (COA) excursions (i.e., simulations) to identify the best solution for achieving key performance metrics for redistribution of materiel.  Users can define strategies and adjust a multitude of variables to determine the optimal solution.  A few of these variables may include: second-destination transportation cost, modernization of equipment, and pure fleeting of equipment.

The impact of the Army restructuring effort is measured in the redistribution of hundreds of thousands of pieces of equipment. Using ProModel’s application framework, DST allows Army planners to run multiple, future COA excursions.  With the tool’s auto-optimization feature, these excursions optimize misaligned equipment across every major command within the Army.  Then, the blue sky planning feature sources from inactive units, and from pure excesses, to fill any confirmed shortages across the Army.  The flexibility of the tool allows newly activated or converting units to be sourced as priority fills.  This type of in-depth analysis, which previously would have taken months to accomplish, can now be accomplished in hours.  The LMI DST is facilitating the change in an ever-changing Army.

Simulating The Impact Of New Laws On Probation Systems

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Jennifer Cowden – Sr. Consultant

It was recently announced that the U.S. Justice Department is planning to release 6000 inmates near the end of the month due to new sentencing policies for non-violent drug-offenders.  Most of the prisoners will be placed in half-way houses and drug rehab centers as part of the “largest one-time release of federal prisoners” in U. S History, which begs the question: are these rehabilitation centers going to be ready for this sudden influx?

One state has had a similar law change recently and is rightly concerned about the impact that the new sentencing structure will have on the probation system and ancillary support services.  ProModel consultants have been working with this state’s Administrative Office of Probation to build a series of models around different aspects of the probation system.  The previous phase model studied the movement of youths through the juvenile probation system, while the model discussed in the video below addresses the adult probationer population.

In addition to gaining insight into bottlenecks in the process, the Probation Office was interested in using Predictive Analytics to assess the impact that the new law will have on the probation office workload and the local county jail occupancy rate.  As part of the law change, convicts who are guilty of certain felonies will spend part of their sentence in probation instead of spending all of it in prison.  These felons are at a higher risk level than the current average probationer,  and will likely cause a disproportionate workload increase on the probation officers as well as take up county jail space should custodial sanctions need to be implemented.  The model will be used to help quantify the increased demand so that the appropriate adjustments can be made ahead of time.

The next steps for this model is to combine it with the juvenile model in order to predict more accurately the demand on shared services and resources.